The Cover BoardBoardSummaryStandings
Week 8
207 picks across 56 games● Lock — triple weight★ Upset Special — takes no pick slotABC Benched — graded, but scored nothingA head's points, record and units come from the graded week, not from summing its column
How the week added up
Every counted pick above, priced. The totals are the graded week's own, not a sum of the grid — benched picks fill a cell and reach neither column.
Points — what earned them
| Player | Picks won×1 | Pushed×0.5 | Locks won×3 | Locks pushed×1.5 | Upsetmoneyline | Pointstotal |
|---|
| Mitch | |
Claude's notes
- TENN Tennessee handled Alabama 26-10 with George MacIntyre at QB, and the line still flipped from Vols -1.5 to Gamecocks -2.5. SP+ has Tennessee by 4. I'll take the 6-1 team plus points.
- ILL Oregon is on its third straight game without Dante Moore and still hasn't named a QB, and it's 2-4 ATS. This line opened 12.5, we froze 9.5, and it's 8.5 now. 78% of the money is on Illinois from half the tickets. Freshman QB or not, the hook is ours.
- UCLA Michigan State's QB Alessio Milivojevic is questionable and the backup is listed with a knee. UCLA is 5-0-1 ATS, SP+ makes it 19, and the market has already moved to -14.5. Holding -14 means a two-touchdown win cashes.
- PITT Pitt +950. Miami opened -23.5 and has been bet down to -19.5. Pitt has the country's best run defense, and the forecast is 15-20 mph wind with storms possible, which shrinks the game. Miami needed a shootout to beat FSU 43-35. I'm nine games out of first and this pays 9.5.
- TCU This opened TCU -7 and got bet to -10 with 78% of the handle on 33% of the tickets. West Virginia has given up 52 and 42 in its last two games.
- MINN 69% of the money on Minnesota from 31% of the tickets. Iowa is starting Jeremy Hecklinski at QB, and both teams are coming off a bye. Minnesota has covered both games it's been a dog.
- ARIZ SP+ makes this Arizona by 17. Iowa State's defense allows 6.7 yards a play, and Arizona has dropped 34 on Cincinnati and 52 on West Virginia in recent weeks.
- UVA Virginia -1.5 is a number the market already left behind: it's -2.5 now. 31% of DraftKings tickets but 63% of the money is on the Hoos, and SP+ has them by about 3. I'll lay the short number at home.
- HOU Loudest real split on the board: Houston has 25% of the tickets and 74% of the money. A 6-1 team that just put 35 on Oklahoma State is getting nearly a touchdown.
7 Oregon-9.5 Illinois+9.51021 | ORE | ILL★ | | ILL● | ILL | ORE | ORE● | ORE | | |
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7 Michigan State+14 UCLA-141028 | MSU | | MSU | UCLA● | MSU | MSU | MSU | UCLA | | |
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7 USC-3 Wisconsin+3724 | USC | USC● | WIS | | WIS● | USC● | WIS | USC | | |
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6 Indiana-7 Michigan+7136 | IU● | | MICH | | IU | IU● | IU | IU● | | |
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6 Pittsburgh+19.5 Miami-19.52352 | MIA | PITT | | PITT★ | MIA | | MIA | MIA | | |
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6 Texas A&M+14 Alabama-142031 | | TA&M● | | | ALA | TA&M | TA&M | ALA | ALA● | |
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6 BYU-6.5 UCF+6.53139 | UCF | | BYU | | UCF | UCF | UCF | BYU● | | |
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6 Ole Miss+3.5 Texas-3.52734 | | TEX | MISS●★ | | MISS | MISS | MISS | MISS● | | |
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5 Rutgers+16.5 Northwestern-16.51442 | NU | RUTG● | | | NU | RUTG | RUTG | | | |
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5 Texas Tech-10.5 Cincinnati+10.52437 | CIN●★ | | | | CIN | TTU | TTU | TTU | | |
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5 West Virginia+10 TCU-102420 | TCU | | | TCU | WVU | WVU | TCU● | | | |
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5 LSU-7.5 Auburn+7.53817 | AUB | | | | AUB | LSU | AUB | AUB | | |
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5 Iowa-6.5 Minnesota+6.51013 | MINN | | | MINN | MINN | IOWA | IOWA | | | |
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5 Oklahoma-4.5 Mississippi State+4.52315 | MSST | | | | MSST | OU | OU | MSST★ | | |
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5 Kansas State-3.5 Arizona State+3.51728 | | KSU | | | KSU | KSU● | KSU | | KSU● | |
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5 Colorado+13.5 Oklahoma State-13.52457 | COLO | OKST | OKST● | | COLO | | COLO | | | |
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5 Iowa State+10.5 Arizona-10.5339 | ARIZ● | ARIZ | | ARIZ | ISU | | ARIZ | | | |
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4 Duke+1.5 Virginia-1.51916 | UVA | | | UVA● | UVA | DUKE | | | | |
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4 Army+1.5 Tulsa-1.53835 | TLSA | | | | ARMY | | TLSA | | TLSA● | |
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4 California+19.5 SMU-19.52059 | CAL | | | | CAL | | CAL | | SMU | |
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4 Vanderbilt+10.5 Kentucky-10.51734 | VAN | | UK● | | VAN | | VAN | | | |
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4 Houston+6.5 Utah-6.51321 | | | | HOU | UTAH | HOU★ | HOU | | | |
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3 South Alabama-1.5 Marshall+1.51320 | | | | | MRSH | | USA | | USA | |
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3 New Mexico State-3 Sam Houston+33024 | NMSU | | | | SHSU | | | | NMSU | |
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3 James Madison-10.5 App State+10.53134 | APP | | | | APP | APP | | | | |
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3 East Carolina+10 Memphis-103441 | MEM | | | | MEM | | | | MEM | |
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3 NC State-6.5 Stanford+6.52831 | NCSU | | | | STAN | | NCSU | | | |
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3 Baylor-3 Kansas+32425 | | | | | KU | BAY | | | BAY | |
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3 North Texas-2.5 Navy+2.54939 | UNT | | | | NAVY | | NAVY | | | |
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3 Hawai'i-4.5 Northern Illinois+4.55621 | | | | | NIU●★ | | NIU | | NIU★ | |
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3 Boston College+4 Georgia Tech-44927 | BC | | BC | | | | BC● | | | |
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3 San José State+5.5 Nevada-5.51328 | SJSU | | | | NEV | | NEV | | | |
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3 Old Dominion+12.5 Louisiana Tech-12.5026 | | | LT | | ODU | | LT | | | |
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3 Boise State-13.5 Washington State+13.53110 | | | | | WSU | BOIS | BOIS | | | |
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3 San Diego State-1.5 Colorado State+1.54956 | | | | CSU | CSU | | CSU | | | |
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3 Virginia Tech+2.5 Clemson-2.52016 | | | | | CLEM | VT | CLEM | | | |
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3 Syracuse+7.5 North Carolina-7.53130 | | | | UNC | UNC● | | SYR | | | |
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3 UTSA-2.5 Tulane+2.54219 | UTSA | | | | UTSA | | TULN | | | |
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3 North Dakota State+4.5 New Mexico-4.51621 | UNM | | | | NDSU | | NDSU | | | |
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2 Middle Tennessee+10.5 Florida International-10.52623 | | | | | FIU | | FIU | | | |
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2 Missouri State+3 Delaware-33861 | | | | | DEL | | MOST | | | |
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2 Liberty-10 Kennesaw State+10346 | | | | | KENN | KENN | | | | |
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2 Massachusetts+14.5 UConn-14.51635 | | | | | CONN | | | | MASS | |
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2 Air Force-5.5 Wyoming+5.51428 | | | | | WYO | | AF | | | |
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2 Rice+7.5 Florida Atlantic-7.54951 | | | | | RICE | | RICE | | | |
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2 Western Michigan+3 Toledo-33845 | | | | | TOL | | WMU | | | |
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2 Miami (OH)-2.5 Central Michigan+2.52827 | | | | | CMU | | M-OH | | | |
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2 Akron+3 Kent State-32035 | | | | | AKR | | AKR | | | |
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2 Bowling Green+3 Buffalo-32431 | | | | | BUF | | BGSU | | | |
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2 Sacramento State+14.5 Ball State-14.51734 | | | | | SAC | | BALL | | | |
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2 UL Monroe+14 Troy-142114 | | | | | ULM | | ULM | | | |
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2 Eastern Michigan+12.5 Ohio-12.52024 | | | | | EMU | | OHIO | | | |
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2 Louisiana-10 Southern Miss+103135 | | | | | USM | | UL | | | |
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2 Georgia State-2.5 Arkansas State+2.53238 | | | | | ARST | | ARST | | | |
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2 Utah State+13.5 Texas State-13.51720 | | | | | USU | | TXST | | | |
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4+4
| emtrujil22 | 3+3 | 1+0.5 | 2+6 | — | — | +9.5 |
| benkadi09 | 5+5 | 1+0.5 | 1+3 | — | — | +8.5 |
| austin.j.farr | 1+1 | — | — | 1+1.5 | — | +2.5 |
No losing column, because a loss is worth nothing here.
Units — what moved them
| Player | Picks±1 | Locks±3 | Upsetmoneyline | Unitstotal |
|---|
| Mitch | 4-3+1 | 2-0+6 | 1/1+3.4 | +10.4 |
| sammyg | 5-2+3 | 1-2−3 | 1/1+2.8 | +2.8 |
| emtrujil22 | 3-30 | 2-1+3 | 0/1−1 | +2 |
| Claude | 3-4−1 | 2-1+3 | 0/1−1 | +1 |
| benkadi09 | 5-1+4 | 1-2−3 | 0/1−1 | 0 |
| Robert | 4-3+1 | 0-2−6 | 0/1−1 | −6 |
| danyalkadi | 2-5−3 | 1-2−3 | — | −6 |
| austin.j.farr | 1-6−5 | 0-2−6 | 0/1−1 | −12 |
| paulrosendahl | 2-5−3 | 0-3−9 | 0/1−1 | −13 |
No pushing column, because a push returns the stake and moves nothing. Even money, so break-even is exactly 50%.
CSU SDSU's QB Jayden Denegal is questionable with a knee, and the backup is a redshirt freshman just back from a broken collarbone. SP+ has Colorado State winning. Yes, they gave up 66 last week. I'm taking the points against a team that may not have its quarterback.UNC We froze -7.5 and the market is -8.5. UNC just won at Duke, SP+ lands right on this number, and the money is all one way.3