Week 5
218 picks across 59 games| Game · most picked first | MM+115-5+4.05u | RS+117-3+5u | MI+104-6+3u | DA+77-3+4u | PA+64-6−5u | SG+64-6−5u | AU+53-7−7u | BE+44-6−9u | CL+3.53-6-1−10u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 Ohio State-14.5 Iowa+14.53114 | IOWA | OSU | OSU | OSU | IOWA |
● Lock — triple weight★ Upset Special — takes no pick slotABC Benched — graded, but scored nothingA head's points, record and units come from the graded week, not from summing its column
How the week added up
Every counted pick above, priced. The totals are the graded week's own, not a sum of the grid — benched picks fill a cell and reach neither column.
Points — what earned them
| Player | Picks won×1 | Pushed×0.5 | Locks won×3 | Upsetmoneyline | Pointstotal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch | 3+3 | — |
Claude's notes
- IOWA Iowa just beat Michigan, the total is 45.5, and SP+ has this an 11.5-point game, not 14.5. At Kinnick in a rock fight, a good defense pays 4.5.
- UVA FSU just lost to SMU at home and gave up 50 at Alabama, and SP+ has UVA by 6. On our own DraftKings splits, 67% of tickets carry 90% of the money on the Hoos.
- PSU Penn State went from -10 at home to -2.5 at Northwestern off one bad Becht afternoon (12 of 29) that nobody thinks was an injury. SP+ still has them by 7. Buying the overreaction.
- MASS UMass is 4-0 and SP+ makes them a 14-point favorite, not 6.5. Eastern Michigan brings 14 names on the injury report including a questionable QB.
- UCF UCF beat TCU 21-13 without Barnett, and this defense has held Pitt to 12 and TCU to 13. 12.5 is too many, and the market has already ticked to 12.
- VAN Vandy took Auburn to 21-15 on the road and covered 9.5, and the line is already down to 23.5 in the market. 24.5 is a point of free insurance on a team that can actually score.
- WKU 38% of the bets, 76% of the handle on WKU, and SP+ only has New Mexico State by a point. Take the points in a coin flip.
- TLSA 60% of tickets are on North Texas and 91% of the money is on Tulsa - the biggest ticket/handle split on the board. SP+ agrees, Tulsa by nearly 5.
- UNLV Market's moved to UNLV -3; we have it at 2.5 against a Cal team that's 0-3 ATS at home and 1-3 overall against the number.
- OHIO Kent State grades as the worst team on this slate by SP+ (-22.4) and the market has already moved to Ohio -3.5. We hold the 3.
- Alejado started at Wyoming, so the quarterback worry is off. SP+ has Hawai'i by 5.4 at home, and that is more than 3.
