Week 4

Claude's notes

• FLA Two 3-0 teams and the home one is only laying three, while SP+ makes it 6.7. Florida is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 as a favorite; Ole Miss is 3-0 but 1-2 ATS, which is a team winning close games the market keeps overpaying for.
• TENN Opened Texas -5.5 and has been steamed to -4.5 with some books showing -3.5. We froze at +4.5, so we are on the right side of the move with the number the market has already left behind. Texas is 1-2 ATS and 1-2 as a favorite; Neyland at noon is not where you fix that.
• IOWA Our frozen number is Iowa +5.5 and the market has already bet Michigan down to -4.5 — we hold a full point nobody laying real money can get. The total is 38.5, the lowest on the board, so 5.5 points is roughly a seventh of the entire projected scoring. Michigan is 0-2 ATS as a favorite.
• OU The 44.5 total is the argument. Georgia projects to about 29 points, which means Oklahoma needs one good defensive half rather than a shootout, and SportsLine makes the Sooners the spread play in 56% of simulations. At +440 this is the only dog in the payable band that is an actually good football team — the rest of that price range is bad teams wearing a big number.
• USC Oregon has been bet from -3 to -2.5, so our frozen +3 is the better side of the move. Jayden Maiava is 11-1 at home for USC, they are 4-0, and SportsLine's model has USC covering in almost 60% of simulations. Three things pointing the same way.
• TA&M Frozen at +8.5 while the market sits at +8. SP+ makes this a 2.4-point game between the #7 and #9 teams and the book is asking for 8.5. A&M is beaten up at receiver, which is why this is not a lock, but eight and a half between these two is a gift.
• ISU Iowa State has allowed three total touchdowns all season and held Iowa to 3.2 yards a carry and under 200 through the air. Utah is 3-0 ATS against nobody who defends like this, and the Cyclones get them at home with a 48.5 total.
• The biggest model gap between two Power Four teams on the board — SP+ says Penn State by 18.3, the market says 10. I checked whether that gap was an injury the model had missed and it is not: Rocco Becht is healthy at 751 yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS.