The Cover BoardBoardSummaryStandings
Week 3
178 picks across 73 games● Lock — triple weight★ Upset Special — takes no pick slotABC Benched — graded, but scored nothingA head's points, record and units come from the graded week, not from summing its column
How the week added up
Every counted pick above, priced. The totals are the graded week's own, not a sum of the grid — benched picks fill a cell and reach neither column.
Points — what earned them
| Player | Picks won×1 | Pushed×0.5 | Locks won×3 | Upsetmoneyline | Pointstotal |
|---|
| Mitch | 6+6 | — | |
Claude's notes
- UNC 79% of the moneyline dollars are on Carolina off exactly 50% of the tickets. Clemson is 1-1 and 0-2 ATS, and SP+ separates these two by under two points — the Tigers should not be laying anything at all.
- RUTG USC opened -24.5 and is now -21.5; we are frozen at +23.5, two points ahead of where the market ended up. USC is 3-0 straight up and 1-2 against the number, which is the whole tell on a team the public keeps overpaying for.
- KSU Kansas State has not allowed a touchdown this season and just ran for 295 yards on a Washington State defense that defends the run. 98% of the DraftKings handle is on the Wildcats off 65% of tickets, and Tulane is 0-2 against the number.
- TA&M Kenny Minchey makes his first career road start a week after three turnovers in a 45-17 loss where Alabama scored 32 unanswered, and Texas A&M's defense has six takeaways in two games at Kyle Field. The market is already at -17.5; we're frozen a point better.
- CSU 68% of the money on 23% of tickets, BYU's first true road trip of the season, 5,000 feet in Fort Collins at night on CBS. Colorado State is 2-0 with a 35-13 win over Wyoming; BYU's best result is 28-17 over an Arizona team that is 0-2 ATS.
- EMU Loudest money signal on the board: 85% of DraftKings dollars on 20% of tickets, and the line has moved a point toward Eastern Michigan since we froze. Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS with a banged-up Colton Joseph and has not put together a full 60 minutes yet.
- USA Second-biggest frozen-line edge on the board: this sat at -5.5 when our lines froze and is -7 now, so we are a point and a half ahead of the market. 98% of the money is on South Alabama, and Ohio is 0-2 ATS.
- UVA Virginia has allowed 11 points all season, and one of those games was 34-8 over NC State. West Virginia's resume is 52-7 over UT Martin and a second-half scare from Coastal Carolina. 91% of the DraftKings handle is on Virginia off 60% of tickets.
CLEM
7 Arizona State-5.5 Kansas+5.52417 | ASU | | ASU● | ASU● | ASU | ASU | | ASU | ASU | | |
|---|
6 LSU-3 Ole Miss+32432 | LSU | LSU | LSU | LSU | | | LSU● | | LSU● | | |
|---|
5 Miami-20.5 Wake Forest+20.53320 | | | WAKE | MIA● | MIA | | | MIA | MIA | | |
|---|
5 Houston+7.5 Texas Tech-7.52628 | HOU● | | HOU | | HOU★ | | | HOU | HOU★ | | |
|---|
5 Georgia-24.5 Arkansas+24.54517 | UGA | | ARK | UGA | UGA● | | | UGA | | | |
|---|
5 USC-23.5 Rutgers+23.54235 | | RUTG | USC | USC | | | USC | | | RUTG | |
|---|
4 Coastal Carolina+4.5 Delaware-4.51422 | | | DEL | | CCU | CCU★ | | CCU | | | |
|---|
4 Tulane+20.5 Kansas State-20.52031 | KSU | | TULN | | | | | TULN | | KSU | |
|---|
4 Kent State+52.5 Ohio State-52.5359 | | | KENT | OSU | OSU● | | | OSU | | | |
|---|
4 Bowling Green+23.5 Iowa State-23.5755 | | | ISU | | BGSU | BGSU | | BGSU | | | |
|---|
4 SMU+1.5 Louisville-1.53141 | | SMU | LOU● | | | | LOU● | | SMU● | | |
|---|
4 Kentucky+16.5 Texas A&M-16.53121 | | UK★ | UK | | | | UK | | | TA&M● | |
|---|
4 Utah State+28.5 Utah-28.5033 | UTAH | | USU | | | UTAH● | UTAH | | | | |
|---|
4 Florida State+19.5 Alabama-19.53650 | | FSU● | FSU | | | | ALA | | ALA● | | |
|---|
4 BYU-17.5 Colorado State+17.54123 | CSU | | CSU | BYU● | | | | | | CSU★ | |
|---|
3 Portland State+57.5 Oregon-57.5084 | | | PRST | | ORE | | | PRST | | | |
|---|
3 Buffalo+40.5 Penn State-40.51355 | | | BUF | | | PSU | | PSU | | | |
|---|
3 Akron+24.5 Minnesota-24.5741 | MINN | | MINN | | | | | MINN | | | |
|---|
3 North Texas+3 Texas State-33549 | UNT | | TXST | | | TXST | | | | | |
|---|
3 Mercer+38.5 Georgia Tech-38.51144 | | | GT | | GT● | | | GT | | | |
|---|
3 Eastern Michigan+24.5 Wisconsin-24.51054 | | | EMU | | | | EMU● | | | EMU | |
|---|
3 Western Kentucky+44.5 Indiana-44.5038 | IU | | IU | | | WKU | | | | | |
|---|
3 Stanford+9.5 Duke-9.5735 | DUKE | | DUKE | DUKE | | | | | | | |
|---|
3 Ohio+5.5 South Alabama-5.53641 | | | USA | | | | OHIO★ | | | USA | |
|---|
3 Colorado+3.5 Northwestern-3.5741 | COLO | | COLO | | | NU | | | | | |
|---|
3 West Virginia+10 Virginia-103827 | WVU★ | | WVU | | | | | | | UVA● | |
|---|
3 James Madison+2.5 San Diego State-2.52613 | JMU● | | JMU | | | | | | | JMU | |
|---|
3 Purdue+14 UCLA-143852 | UCLA | | UCLA | UCLA | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 Syracuse+10.5 Pittsburgh-10.51327 | | | SYR | | | | | PITT | | | |
|---|
2 NC State+3.5 Vanderbilt-3.53135 | VAN● | | VAN | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 Temple+5.5 Toledo-5.54849 | | | TOL | | | TOL● | | | | | |
|---|
2 Miami (OH)+14.5 Cincinnati-14.53135 | | | M-OH | | | | | | | CIN● | |
|---|
2 UTEP+35.5 Michigan-35.51752 | | UTEP | MICH | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 Northern Iowa+40.5 Iowa-40.5055 | | | UNI | | | UNI● | | | | | |
|---|
2 Louisiana Tech+19.5 Baylor-19.51936 | LT | | LT | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 Charlotte+17.5 App State-17.52126 | | | APP | | | | | CLT | | | |
|---|
2 Georgia State+18.5 UCF-18.53044 | | | UCF | | | | | | GAST | | |
|---|
2 Western Michigan-9.5 Rice+9.52821 | | | RICE | | | | WMU | | | | |
|---|
2 Florida-2.5 Auburn+2.54439 | | | AUB● | | | | | | AUB | | |
|---|
2 Murray State+56.5 Oklahoma State-56.5059 | | MUR● | OKST | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 UConn-3 Southern Miss+34820 | USM | | USM | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 Eastern Washington+42.5 Washington-42.51648 | | WASH | WASH | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 North Dakota+24.5 Nebraska-24.5734 | | | UND★ | | | | | | NEB | | |
|---|
2 New Mexico+22.5 Oklahoma-22.5614 | | UNM● | OU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 UTSA+30.5 Texas-30.5630 | | UTSA | UTSA | | | | | | | | |
|---|
2 South Dakota+23.5 Boise State-23.52438 | | | SDAK | | | | BOIS | | | | |
|---|
2 Fresno State-6.5 San José State+6.52610 | SJSU | | SJSU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Wyoming+1.5 Central Michigan-1.51024 | | | CMU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Southern Illinois+41.5 Illinois-41.51048 | | | ILL | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Maine+38.5 Boston College-38.51622 | | | ME | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Stonehill+33.5 Massachusetts-33.51436 | | | MASS | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Duquesne+37.5 Washington State-37.5748 | | | WSU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Ball State+14.5 Liberty-14.51551 | | | LIB | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Mississippi State+4 South Carolina-44134 | | | SC | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 SE Louisiana+10.5 UL Monroe-10.53835 | | | ULM | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 East Carolina+3 Old Dominion-32017 | | | ODU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Florida International+7 Florida Atlantic-71016 | | | FIU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Marshall-3.5 Missouri State+3.53024 | | | MOST | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Nevada-3.5 Middle Tennessee+3.52027 | | | NEV | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 UT Martin+34.5 Memphis-34.52145 | | | MEM | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Delaware State+36.5 South Florida-36.51759 | | | USF | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Nicholls+17.5 Sam Houston-17.5059 | | | NICH | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Troy+26.5 Missouri-26.51727 | | | MIZ | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Georgia Southern+3 Jacksonville State-32731 | | | JXST | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Virginia Tech-3 Maryland+33526 | | | MD | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Michigan State+29.5 Notre Dame-29.51027 | | | MSU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Kennesaw State+35.5 Tennessee-35.5942 | | | TENN | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Arkansas State+20.5 TCU-20.5731 | | | TCU | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 UAB+7.5 Louisiana-7.51421 | | | UL | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 North Dakota State-27.5 Sacramento State+27.53110 | | | SAC | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Northern Illinois+34.5 Arizona-34.51742 | | | ARIZ | | | | | | | | |
|---|
1 Montana+17.5 Oregon State-17.51752 | | | ORST | | | | | | | | |
|---|
3+9
| austin.j.farr | 3+3 | 1+0.5 | 2+6 | — | +9.5 |
No losing column, because a loss is worth nothing here.
Units — what moved them
| Player | Picks±1 | Locks±3 | Upsetmoneyline | Unitstotal |
|---|
| Mitch | 6-1+5 | 3-0+9 | 1/1+2.7 | +16.7 |
| sammyg | 4-3+1 | 2-1+3 | 1/1+5.75 | +9.75 |
| benkadi09 | 4-3+1 | 2-1+3 | 0/1−1 | +3 |
| austin.j.farr | 3-30 | 2-1+3 | 0/1−1 | +2 |
| emtrujil22 | 3-4−1 | 2-1+3 | 0/1−1 | +1 |
| paulrosendahl | 5-2+3 | 1-2−3 | 0/1−1 | −1 |
| mitchbarr6525 | 3-4−1 | 1-2−3 | 0/1−1 | −5 |
| danyalkadi | 5-50 | — | — | 0 |
| Robert | 4-3+1 | 0-3−9 | 0/1−1 | −9 |
| Claude | 2-5−3 | 0-3−9 | 0/1−1 | −13 |
No pushing column, because a push returns the stake and moves nothing. Even money, so break-even is exactly 50%.
JMU Our splits (100% of the handle) and SP+ both say James Madison should be the favorite in this game rather than the dog. JMU is 2-0 and 2-0 ATS; San Diego State is 0-2 ATS and has a worse SP+ rating.CIN Miami has the second-worst coverage grade in the country (46.8 PFF) and Cincinnati's QB is 31-of-38 with three touchdowns and no picks. Our DraftKings splits have 100% of the money on Cincinnati off 67% of tickets, the market has moved to -15.5 while we're frozen at -14.5, and this is the final Victory Bell ever — the winner keeps the bell permanently.3