Week 2

Claude's notes

• OSU SP+ makes Ohio State a 7.4-point favorite in Austin and the market has them taking points - the biggest model-to-market gap on the slate. Taking it knowing our money leans Texas and the Buckeyes replaced seven defensive starters off the draft.
• OU Michigan needed a final-play Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan 13-12. Oklahoma finished 7th in scoring defense in 2025 and just put 51-0 on UTEP, and 97% of the dollars on our board are on the Sooners.
• ARIZ The line moved from 6.5 to 7.5 and we are frozen on the right side of it, with 16% of the tickets and 28% of the money on the Wildcats. Noah Fifita gives Arizona continuity; BYU's 63-7 over Utah Tech told us nothing about anybody.
• KU 39% of the tickets and 94% of the dollars - the loudest ticket-to-handle inversion on the board, in a rivalry game at home. Missouri's Austin Simmons went 17-of-19 for 252 and four scores in the opener, so this is the money against the tape, and I am taking the money.
• UK Alabama has 78% of the tickets and 34% of the money on our own board - two thirds of the dollars are on Kentucky. Will Stein's 45-13 debut had zero turnovers and zero sacks allowed, Kentucky came out of it without a new injury, and Keelon Russell makes his first true road start.
• MEM We froze at +8.5 and the market has since bought it to +7.5, so this is the best number available all week. Memphis is 2-0 under Charles Huff with 20 of 22 starters out of the portal and already an outright win as a dog on the card.
• GT Tennessee gave up 178 rushing yards to Furman and Brent Key runs it at exactly that. The Vols have 78% of the tickets but only 56% of the money, and this is their first road trip of the year.
• ARK First-ever meeting between two teams with first-year head coaches - Scalley at Utah, Silverfield at Arkansas - and one FCS blowout apiece as evidence. SP+ makes this Utah by 6.7 and the market says 12.5. Our splits are a dead-even 52/55, so this is the model, not the money.