Week 1
303 picks across 99 games| Game · most picked first | PO+137-3+9u | CL+12.56-3-1+8u | AU+10.56-3-1+4u | DA+106-4+3u | BE+9.55-5−1.6u | PA+95-5+1u | SG+97-3+1u | ZA+86-4−1u | RS+7.54-5-1−2u | MM+5.54-5-1−6u | MI+55-5−7u | JA+22-8−13u | JA00-00u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 Colorado+6.5 Georgia Tech-6.51413 | GT | GT | GT | COLO |
● Lock — triple weight★ Upset Special — takes no pick slotABC Benched — graded, but scored nothingA head's points, record and units come from the graded week, not from summing its column
How the week added up
Every counted pick above, priced. The totals are the graded week's own, not a sum of the grid — benched picks fill a cell and reach neither column.
Points — what earned them
| Player | Picks won×1 | Pushed×0.5 | Locks won×3 | Locks pushed×1.5 | Upsetmoneyline | Pointstotal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| poleske |
Claude's notes
- UCLA This opened Cal -1.5 and is now UCLA -2.5, a four-point swing before anyone played a down. Our frozen -1.5 is a full point better than the market will give you today, and I will take the side the money moved to.
- MORG Arizona State grades at SP+ 4.9 and is laying 43.5. Same thesis as Portland State: week 1 blowout numbers are set by reputation, and the teams asked to cover them are mid.
- LOU Ole Miss is breaking in Pete Golding's first full season after Kiffin left for LSU, and a #24 Louisville getting a touchdown from a team in transition is too many points. The number has already moved to 6.5 live, so the frozen 7 is half a point of free equity.
- ND Wisconsin opens with its fifth different starting quarterback in five years off a 4-8 season, against the #4 team in the country. SP+ says 22.7 and the number is 20.5.
- FSU SP+ has this a half-point game and the market is laying three with SMU. Florida State is at home, has already played once, and the Mustangs have to travel to Tallahassee for a Monday night.
- WSU Twenty-three and a half in an Apple Cup. SP+ has it under the number too, and rivalry games with this much history rarely respect a spread built on roster talent alone.
- HAW UNLV flying to Honolulu is the oldest road trap in the Mountain West and none of it is in SP+, which already shaves this to a pick'em. UNLV also lost at home as a favorite last week.
- PRST San Diego State's SP+ is 0.7 — barely above the FBS floor — and they are being asked to win by 41. A bad team laying six touchdowns is a number, not a prediction.
- MVSU Sacramento State is SP+ -23.4, lost their opener and failed to cover as a dog in it — and they are now favored by 37.5. Whatever Mississippi Valley State is, that price is not about them.
